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3:41AM Tuesday 02 December, 2008
'Blogs Central
Blog Central: Coast Lines With more than 21 years' experience at the Daily, Erle Levey is dedicated to presenting a fair and accurate overview of the Sunshine Coast property market. Having been through the busts and the booms, he has the benefit of hindsight - and an unshakeable belief in the future of the region.

Forecast: calm conditions to come

April 19 | Erle Levey

Four seasons in one day. Melbourne certainly lived up to its reputation.

Sunshine one minute, rain the next, the strongest of winds and even snow overnight on the mountains.

It was the most extreme weather conditions in recorded history – and I was there.

Two people killed, 140,000 homes without power and millions of dollars worth of damage.

Saying that, it is was good to see the city again, catch up with friends, family and attend the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) awards.

After all, it’s good to remember where you have come from, otherwise how can you appreciate where you are going? Yet while in Melbourne I saw a lot of things that helped ease concerns about the economy and property market.

Developments such as Melbourne Docklands on the western edge of the CBD are an excellent example of urban renewal.

Then there has been the sub-prime mortgage market meltdown in the US which has proven much more of a problem than first thought.

But just think about the term ‘sub-prime’ for a moment. It sounds important. Just below the prime investment market perhaps.

Yet nothing could be further from the truth. It’s worlds away from prime investment.

In Australia we have only seen low-doc or low document loans in the past few years.

In the US they are operating with no-doc loans. No documents. The buyer does not need to show evidence of their ability to repay a loan.

In doing so they take on all the risk and if they cannot keep up with repayments they just walk away from the property, leaving it for the bank to see what they can get for it.

Leading Queensland property analyst Michael Matusik notes that Australia’s house prices rose about 13% last year, more so across south east Queensland – while in the USA prices fell 10% in 2007 and look like they could fall further this year.

As Mr Matusik points out, we are undersupplied with housing. We have a new stock deficiency of 32% across Australia and 46% in Queensland, compared to a 16-month oversupply of newly completed homes sitting vacant across the USA.

What we have seen in recent weeks is a tentative move towards halting the economic slide in the US. Stock markets seem to have flattened for the time being, with some talk of it being time to start looking for bargains.

Couple this with the demand for property in Queensland and Victoria, in particular, then there seems less chance of the Australian property market spiralling downward.

It seems more likely that the outlook forecast by analysts such as Michael Matusik for a period of consolidation will occur.

South East Queensland, in particular, will continue to be a highly desirable area in which to live, work and play.

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