12:00a.m. 2nd November 2008

| By Alan Lander

Downpours predicted for the Coast could see more flooding. This photo: June 08, on the Sunshine Coast after heavy rain....Shane Radaich and Sara Burston from Yandina watch the water flow over Wappa Dam. Photo: Warren Lynam / 175134q

The Sunshine Coast could be in line for substantial flooding over the next five months with the first of the rains only two or three days away.

That’s the tip from long-range weather forecaster Haydon Walker who has warned that not only will the Coast experience serious flooding, it is ill-equipped to deal with major downpours.

“Look at the 1893 floods where Crohamhurst, in the hinterland, received 36 inches (914mm) overnight,” he said.

“If that happened now, we would all be in Moreton Bay.”

Coast drainage simply would not cope with such a deluge.

“I maintain that higher (population) density in coastal areas has had more impact due to run-off from subdivisions, roadways and increased roof areas,” he said.

Mr Walker is predicting “good strong rains” starting shortly and continuing through November, mainly from storms, with some likely to register more than 100mm or more.

“They will continue good and strong in December,” he said.

“Going into January we will continue to get good-to-heavy rains, and cyclonic activity probably as far as the NSW border.”

While things should settle down a bit after that, the wet weather will return in March, Mr Walker said.

“In February the wet starts to dissipate but with reasonable falls to (the state’s) mid-to-north coast.

“But March will see rain kicking in again for the Queensland coastline with maybe another cyclone.

“And a lot of rain will be going inland.

“It’s looking very healthy.”

In fact, Mr Walker said people may be getting a bit over the rain by then, including the impacts of local flooding.

“It could be too much of a good thing.”

While some old-timers might describe his prediction as nothing more than a return to normal weather for the region, he disagreed.

“This will be more intense than ‘normal’,” he said.

“And there will be (at least) local flooding.”

Mr Walker said sunspot activity, which he uses to make weather predictions, was on the increase.

“Solar flares make changes to the barometric pressures.”

The sunspot cycles are 11.15 years, but we are moving into “a strong phase”.

“There’s a fair bit of water coming,” he said.

“The fronts are here already and we can expect rain in the next two to three days.”

Mr Walker said he held a sceptical view of predictions about climate change at this stage. “Until someone can show me further evidence, I am unconvinced.

“I have (weather) charts from the year dot, back prior to the Industrial Revolution.

“I am disgusted with what we are putting into the atmosphere but I believe the climate change debate is too politically driven.”

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data tends to cautiously support Mr Walker’s predictions, indicating the chances of exceeding average rainfall between now and March is 50%.

The BOM website said the Southern Oscillation Index has been at +14 – a strong La Nina influence – pointing to more rain likelihood, with the same conditions predicted for the remainder of spring and summer.